UNIK-FCST

UNIfied Knowledge-ForeCaST, assists with making adjustments in statistical forecasting of the demand for oil products. Time series models have served as a highly useful forecasting method, but are deficient in that they merely extrapolate past patterns in data without taking into account expected future events and other qualitative factors. To overcome this limitation, forecasting experts in practice judgmentally adjust the statistical forecasts. UNIK-FCST learns from historical judgmental adjustments through generalization and analogy, reasons based on similar cases, and compose and decompose the impacts of simulaneous judgmental events nonmonotonically. The system was developed at KAIST, Seoul, Korea.

Lee,J., et al.UNIK-FCST: Knowledge-assisted adjustment of statistical forecasts, 1990